Between 1990-91 and 2024-25, India's transport energy demand has increased by an astounding 13 times due to growth in population, urbanization, and economic development. As the nation pursues its vision for Viksit Bharat 2047 and Net-Zero emissions by 2070, a further rise in transports energy demand is inevitable. For an emerging economy like India with staggering inequality in income and energy access along with regional imbalance, it is of utmost importance to strike a balance and address the energy trilemma between providing equitable access to affordable energy for all, guaranteeing energy security, and providing environmentally sustainable energy usage systems. The growth and development of the transport sector in the long run should be in consonance with the energy trilemma the country faces.

The transport sector contributes to about 5 per cent of gross value added (GVA) per annum and has a wider implication on the country's development. In 2024-25, passenger demand was estimated at 10,161 billion passenger kilometres (BPKM), and freight demand at 4,193 billion tonne kilometres (BTKM). The transport sector is responsible for about 12 per cent of India's total carbon emission from energy use. However, India has one of the lowest per capita emissions from transport at 0.24 tonnes of CO₂ in 2023, as compared to China (0.8), Germany (1.7), and the United States (5.1).

Transport energy demand in the country is further expected to grow from 5.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2019-20 to 34.4 EJ by 2070-71 in business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.1 This is largely driven by rising passenger and freight transport demand, which is projected to increase fourfold in passenger and elevenfold in freight transport by 2070-71 as compared to 2019-20. The number of vehicles on the road is also expected to increase five times, making this a crucial area of concern for energy management.  Currently, India has 35.7 vehicles per 1000 population, compared to other developed countries such as 166 in China, 634 in Germany, and 811 in the US.

The Fossil Fuel Dilemma

Historically, the source of transport energy has been predominantly petroleum products; 80 per cent of high-speed diesel (HSD) and 99 per cent of petrol are consumed in the sector and the consumption of HSD and petrol has increased by 2.4 and 5 times, respectively during the last two decades. ITransport decarbonization is hard-to-abate, and if left unchecked, the transport sector is projected to see a 42 per cent increase in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2070-71.

Despite the manifold surge in the consumption of alternative fuels and technologies even under the best possible scenario, fossil fuel demand would persist in 2070-71. It is projected that natural gas would replace petroleum products as the dominant fuel for road transport, as shown in Figure 1. However, post-2050 period, the fossil fuel consumption would decline due to greater use of cleaner technologies like electric and hydrogen fuel cells.

The decarbonization efforts such as electrification of on-road vehicles, biofuel blending across all modes, efficiency improvements of vehicles, a modal shift to railways, and grid decarbonization have the potential to reduce well-to-wheel transport emissions by 78 per cent in the best possible scenario as compared to BAU scenario.

Technology of Present— Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Electrification has emerged as a key transportation fuel, with electric vehicles (EVs) gaining popularity especially in passenger segments. Government policies that support customer demand as well as domestic production have accelerated EV adoption. However, challenges remain, including the need for extensive charging infrastructure and advancements in battery technology to address the range anxiety and upfront costs that currently hinder widespread adoption.In an aggressive growth scenario, the demand for electricity as a fuel is expected to reach 136 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), 6 times as compared to the BAU scenario, and would be the dominant fuel with 29 per cent of total fuel demand by 2070-71 (Figure 1). This fuel demand is projected from 858 million EVs and correspondingly 23.5 terra-watt hour EV battery demand by 2070-71. Out of this, it was estimated that 52 per cent of battery energy demand would be from four-wheelers and 29 per cent from medium and heavy goods vehicles (MHGVs). And the critical mineral requirement would correspond to 2.6 million tonne of lithium and 17.6 million tonnes of nickel in 2070-71. As compared to the global mine production in 2023, 14 times of lithium and 5 times of nickel mine production would be required to meet this 2070-71 critical mineral demand for EVs in India. Therefore, strategic sourcing and recycling of the critical minerals and innovation in alternative materials would be required for a stable and secure supply of critical minerals.

In addition, the development of solar rooftop charging stations for EVs should be promoted as solar-powered EV charging stations could reduce reliance on the grid, lowering emissions associated with electricity generation.

Hydrogen as a Fuel

Hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen, holds immense potential as a clean fuel for hard-to-abate sectors like heavy-duty freight and long-haul transportation. However, only post 2060-61, hydrogen as a fuel would have more than 15 per cent total fuel demand in the most aggressive scenario. In the transition to affordable green hydrogen, in the short-to-medium term grey hydrogen (produced from natural gas without carbon capture) and blue hydrogen (produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage) would likely play a transitional role. These technologies would bridge the gap till green hydrogen production gets scaled up and becomes more affordable.

Alternate Fuels—Role of Biofuels

Biofuels have seen limited application in India's transport sector but hold significant potential for decarbonization. Therefore, in the best possible scenario, 20 per cent of ethanol, 10 per cent biodiesel, 15 per cent compressed biogas (CBG), and 50 per cent sustainable aviation fuel blending must be achieved for transport decarbonization. It requires extensive infrastructure development and a steady supply of feedstocks to avoid potential conflicts with food security.

Railways for Transport Decarbonization

In 2024-25, with large volumes of passenger and goods transportation, railways contributed to only 3 per cent of the total emissions. On the contrary, MHGVs were the major contributors with 30 per cent of total emissions (Figure 2). Therefore, a modal shift to railways would be an instrumental strategy to target transport emission reduction.

Indian Railways has already made strides in mitigating emissions with more than 90 per cent electrified route length, reducing its reliance on fossil fuels. If aggressive attempts towards a modal shift would be undertaken, expanding rail freight share to 45 per cent by 2030–31 and 50 per cent by 2040–41 would reduce fuel demand by 38 per cent from 468 Mtoe to 340 Mtoe by 2070–71. And the resultant would be 26 per cent further GHG emission reduction, as shown in Figure 3.

Moreover, high-speed trains for intercity travels have the potential to contribute to the reduction of emissions from the aviation sector, as they are an attractive alternative to short-haul flights, which are among the most carbon-intensive forms of transport.

The Road Ahead: Decarbonizing Transport by 2070

As the transport demand continues to grow, proactive measures for infrastructure and policies should align with the national goals. Currently, the sector faces immense challenges as it prepares to meet the rising demand for both passenger and freight transport. With private vehicle ownership expanding, promoting public transport would be critical to avoid overwhelming urban areas with road congestion and increasing emissions. Fuel-mix will play a crucial role in reduction of GHG emissions and fossil fuels will continue for the foreseeable future. The government's role in setting policies and infrastructure development plans encouraging the adoption of cleaner fuels, enhance fuel efficiency, promote biofuel blends, and push for a modal shift to railways are crucial. These necessitate a multi-sectoral approach, collaboration between private players, government bodies, and international partners. Further, the role of carbon credits and carbon-offsetting measures will also be decisive to offset the remaining hard-to-abate emissions from the transport sector. #