The bad news for many stakeholders from COP29 in Baku in November last year was that governments failed to reach consensus on how to follow up their call from COP28 in Dubai 2023 for nations to transition away from fossil fuels. The good news in Dubai had been the parties agreeing for the first time in a consensus statement on the need for 'transitions away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner'. Fossil fuels, long the elephant in the room, had, as it were, been given public notice to leave. And direction was given for phasing in green energy production, distribution and use.

While the ambition was clear and the celebratory mood high, some stakeholders nevertheless cautioned that the 'consensus' could mean that there still were some implementation devils hidden in the COP28 outcome call on 'Parties to contribute in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches'. The Dubai pledge lacked the detail and global enforcement mechanism that would allay the temptation for governments to pursue business-as-usual energy policies at odds with climate objectives.

Evolving Polychange Halfway to COP 30

How to operationalize the Dubai consensus on energy transitions remains on the COP agenda as the climate delegates meet again in New Delhi on March 5-7 at the 24th World Sustainable Development Summit (WSDS).  Convened by TERI, the WSDS takes place half-way in time between COP29 and COP30 in Belem, Brazil later this year.

Also, when we meet at the WSDS, the world's mightiest economic and military power will be a month and a half into a new Presidency. Global attention will be focused on the course the new administration is charting at home, in trade relations and geopolitically. Assessing not least the impact of new US energy and climate policies on global energy transitions, global efforts for sustainable development and to address the global challenge of climate change. Adding to uncertainties, the political landscape is changing also elsewhere in the Global North, where the 'my country first' mantra is increasingly being heard, overshadowing calls for multilateral approaches to meet common global challenges. While the Global South, with India as a leading voice, is asserting itself calling for a more just world order.

All this as the war continues in Europe and West Asia, while tension is rising in the South China Sea. Without any early end in sight and with potential to spin into wider conflict. The media headlines of our day must not let us lose sight of the many other conflicts that simmer, erupt, and are allowed to continue elsewhere with dire humanitarian consequence. The loss of lives and devastation may be local, but the disruptive economic, social, and political impact is global in an evolving normal of 'polychange'. A web of geo-political change, economic change, demographic change, energy change, and climate change, all entangled into each other. The political polarization, disparities, and inequality in and among nations are increasing. While we continue to mismanage the environment to the peril of our planet. And while short-term priorities put longer-term sustainability goals on the backburner.

Headwinds and Tailwinds

A gloomy backdrop, indeed, with headwinds also for pledged and just energy transitions. Contrary to climate ambition and the COP28 call for transitions away from fossil fuels, demand for them is still increasing, still accounting for some 80% of the global energy mix. Fossil fuels will remain for some time crucial for the energy security of individual countries. There are no quick fixes or one-size-fits-all solutions for energy transitions as governments address the dual challenge of energy and climate security. Countries are different. They have differentiated capabilities and responsibilities determined by their national circumstances.

The gloom aside, we can also be impressed by the tailwinds, all that is being done in India and elsewhere to develop and scale up renewable energy options, speeding up energy transitions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the world over the next five years to add more renewable capacity than has been installed in the past 100 years. Transitioning away from fossil fuels in the electricity system, we see promising trends for solar and wind. Nuclear is being revived. All pushed by both energy security concern and the need to cut carbon emissions.

But despite all the pledges by countries and all achievements so far, the COP global stocktake acknowledges that we are not on track to meeting the ambitious global emissions' and climate targets that would bring the world to carbon neutrality by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Setting ambitious goals is good. Achieving them through workable solutions in multilateral effort is much better.

Energy Transitions and Additions

To be sure, we need more energy, not less, to fuel global economic and social development. But it must be cleaner energy, used in a more efficient way, accessible and affordable for all. Despite all that is being done to develop and scale up renewable energy options, and contrary to climate ambition, global demand for fossil fuels is increasing and that at higher price levels. Increasing global energy demand heightens the urgency of both energy transitions and energy additions.

Also to be sure, policy adjustments and resets may in some cases be what is needed to move forward for the common global good in a just and realistic way. Global transition to renewable and cleaner energy is the call of the day for reducing carbon emissions and mitigating global warming.

We need more, not less, international dialogue and cooperation in energy among countries and across political and economic dividing lines.  Innovative policies are called for at global, national, sub-national, and city levels. Business has an important role to play. But energy transitions cannot be left to market forces alone. Governments must play their part by providing incentives and framework conditions that 'nudge' industry in the sustainable direction. A new public–private energy partnership with global reach is required to accelerate just transitions to a greener and renewable energy future. An imperative to be pushed on by technological innovation and an impatient civil society. #